Interviewed by the German TV ZDF for a feature on the future of oil prices, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said, “The era of cheap oil is over. Each barrel oil that will come to market in the future will be much more difficult to produce and therefore more expensive. We all - governments, industry and consumers - should carefully choose the type of car we want to buy in the future and should be prepared for oil prices being much higher than several years ago”.
See video of the report (in German)…

In an interview with the Chinese news agency Xinhua, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol called China’s growing energy demand “legitimate and a very normal development” due to the country’s outstanding economic expansion. He made this comment after IEA calculation showed that China has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest energy consumer. “When we look at the economic development process of the U.S. and Europe, they also needed a lot of energy. Now it is China’s turn to grow.” Fatih Birol added that China would soon be “the world champion of renewable energy use”.

Speaking in Ankara during the launch of Energy Policies of Turkey: 2009 Review, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka noted that the country’s energy use is expected to double over the next decade, while electricity demand is likely to increase even faster. “Growth at this pace requires not only large investments but also measures to ensure energy security, especially in the electricity sector,” Mr. Tanaka emphasised.

The newspaper is featuring an article on China’s energy challenges and worries that these could become an international problem, likely to trouble any global efforts to try to avoid environmental damage from rising temperatures, and quotes IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol as saying: If China will not be able to meet its own goals on energy efficiency, the chances of avoiding global warming “are very close to zero”. The IEA projects that the country is now on track to represent 29% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030.

Removing energy subsidies could change the energy game ‘quickly and substantially’, the Middle East’s leading English language daily quotes IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol as saying. The newspaper refers to a joint report by the IEA, OPEC, OECD and the World Bank, which found that cutting energy subsidies could save billions, listing Saudi Arabia amongst the countries that spend most on subsidies. Arab News goes on to write that Khalid Al-Falih (CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company) acknowledges that the increasing domestic consumption causes concern.

Speaking at the launch of Energy Technology Perspectives 2010, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said that governments are increasingly beginning to take steps needed to achieve a low-carbon future. “I believe that in fact we may be witnessing the early signs of the historic transition that we so badly need, […] We are also seeing some promising signs of accelerated deployment for a number of important low-carbon technologies, particularly in renewable energy, energy efficiency and advanced vehicles technologies.”

IEA gas analyst Michiel Nijboer emphasised the promising role natural gas vehicles can play in both energy independence and greenhouse gas reduction but said a lack of awareness, infrastructure challenges and government concern about locking in mid-term technology is inhibiting uptake. Nijboer said “education, education, education” is the way to overcome the obstacles, noting the fundamental strengths of natural gas as a clean and abundant fuel, with “technology available at reasonable costs.”

Speaking at the launch of the joint IEA/NEA nuclear energy technology roadmap during the East Asia Climate Forum in Seoul, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said, “nuclear energy is one of the key low-carbon technologies that can contribute, alongside energy efficiency, renewable energies and carbon capture and storage, to the decarbonisation of electricity supply by 2050.”

“Global coal prices will continue to be linked to Chinese demand. The country could import as much as 170 million tonnes (mt) this year,” the Indian business newspaper quotes IEA coal expert Brian Ricketts as saying. Noting that Asian coal demand is expected to surge, with China leading the way for the region, he added: “If demand picks up in other regions, it would put pressure on the supply chain.”

Phasing out energy subsidies worth billions of USD worldwide would trigger vast savings in energy consumption and CO2 emissions and change the energy game “quickly and substantially”, according to IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol. “I see fossil fuel subsidies as the appendicitis of the global energy system which needs to be removed for a healthy, sustainable development future.” The IEA calculated that in 2008, 37 large developing countries spent about USD 557 billion in energy subsidies – much more than previously thought.

Although investment in green technology declined during the height of the financial crisis, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka believes the renewables sector may not be as bad off as initially forecasted. Noting the rapid evolution in electric vehicles and solar and wind power, he said “We are seeing real changes and a historical transition in low-carbon technology,”. He also remarked that some G20 countries were making rapid progress in their pledges to progressively erase fuel subsidies, which would make alternative fuel sources more attractive.

Speaking from the European Gas Summit in London, IEA senior gas expert Anne-Sophie Corbeau said that gas demand was now “on the recovery track” and in any scenario was set to increase. She cautioned, however, that the supply/demand balance in the Asian market could tighten faster than expected if gas-fired heating was to increase in China, making a flexible approach towards investment in the sector essential.

A boom in unconventional natural gas like in the US is unlikely to happen in Europe in the near term, according to IEA analyst Trevor Morgan. Speaking at an oil conference in Paris he is quoted as saying, “[..] we don’t think that a boom in unconventional gas and particular shale gas production in Europe is just around the corner”. The IEA projects the current gas supply glut to persist for at least a few years mainly because of a significant plunge in gas demand, increased LNG supply and higher US shale gas output.

Commenting that the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico could lead to tighter regulations and slow offshore oil and gas development, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said “the future potential [for oil supply] is offshore in deeper water and in the Arctic, so if offshore investment is going to be slowed down, that is a concern.” He added, “we have to learn from the accident. We need good supply from offshore in the future.”

Noting that China’s surging demand for power from oil and coal has led to the largest six-month increase in the tonnage of human generated greenhouse gases ever by a single country, Jonathan Sinton, IEA China Programme Manager said, “no country of this size has seen energy demand grow this fast before in absolute terms, and those who are most concerned about this are the Chinese themselves.”

At a UN conference on energy and climate change, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said that “if the price of oil stays at USD 80-85 a barrel for the full year, in 2010 it will equal 4.5% of gross domestic product of (.) lesser developed countries (…). That will be the highest ever” correlation between oil prices and GDP. He expressed concern that this price level could restrict growth in these countries.

Commenting on the impact of oil prices on the global economic recovery, IEA Executive Director Tanaka said “There are plenty of uncertainties. The market is waiting to see how the economic recovery comes true. We know that in OECD countries the economic recovery is happening, but the oil demand is not really growing. We call it an oil-less recovery.”

Speaking at the launch of Energy Policies of Canada – 2009 Review in Ottawa, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka praised Canada for progress on clean energy in its power supply. Yet he underlined the necessity of cleaner use and production of fossil energy by reducing the environmental impact of oilsands and the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). “Indeed, large-scale deployment of CCS is one of the key components of Canada’s long-term energy future, and the IEA commends Canada for this position,” Mr. Tanaka said.

The potential for renewable energy usage and biofuels is “huge”, the newswire quotes Nobuo Tanaka, IEA Executive Director, as saying. Speaking on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF) in Cancun, he said that by 2050, more than 25 percent of total transport fuel demand could be supplied by biofuels. The IEF meeting closed by a statement from producers and consumers affirming that all energy sources – including nuclear and wind power - must be used to meet the projected rise in energy demand in the coming decades.

The growth of Iraq’s oil production and exports will play a “decisive role in shaping global oil markets,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol, commenting on plans to increase the country’s oil production. Without a boost in Iraqi output, he expressed concern that global supply over the next five years will struggle to match the expected rise in demand, particularly from China, India and the Middle East.